Thus, even for the short-term investor, information gathering itself no longer provides a lasting edge.įor long-term investors, the relationship to information has changed even more fundamentally. The informational advantage provided by such data is but fleeting, however once this data is commercially accessible to everyone, the advantage disappears. These new, “alternative” sources of information have briefly given some stock pickers a slight edge in predicting short-term stock price movements. We are deluged by floods of data-not only the details of prices, volumes, margins, and capital investments of individual companies, but also highly granular data about credit card receipts, numbers of cars in parking lots, or words used in media reports. Now gathering information no longer takes much effort. Indeed, when I started my career in investing in the late 1970s, obtaining even basic financial info about a German car company still required going to Germany and knocking on the company’s door. Doing research, in the sense of gathering evidence and analyzing it to reach a conclusion, was hard work, but enabled analysts committed to such intellectual labor to obtain an edge over their competitors simply by having better, and more complete, information. This entailed tracking down and interrogating customers and competitors, employees, and former employees. In the late 1950s, in his book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Phil Fisher recommended making investment decisions based on “scuttlebutt,” the kind of information an investor could get by asking around. persons.īy clicking on the “I Agree” button below, you acknowledge that you have read and understood this disclaimer and wish to proceed to these pages.
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#Scuttlebutt investing professional
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